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A Risk-based Framework for Predicting Long-term Beach Evolution

More:  Institute 
Acronym: RF-PeBLE
Status: In Progress

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Abstract:
Beaches are the most dynamic of coastal features and evolve in relation to the supply of sediment from adjacent cliffs, sandbanks or other beaches and the wind, waves and currents that move the sediment around. The research developed here aims to develop a means of making predictions of long term beach evolution and to assess the probability that a given piece of coast will fail to protect from flooding. The predictions will be made using computer models that will be calibrated against a field experiment and tested against historical surveys of the coastline. The methodology we develop will enable UK coastal authorities and others responsible for coastal management to achieve predictions of shoreline change over the time scales now required by Government. It is thus important not only to develop the framework, but also to demonstrate its practicability using a standard of data quality and coverage that can be reasonably achieved by UK coastal authorities. The methodology will also be capable of worldwide application.
To achieve the stated aims of this project, we will integrate the three following activities:
A Uncertainty and Process Modelling. The objective of this activity is to formulate new morphodynamic models for predicting the stochastic behaviour of defined lengths of beach, (the elements of the system from the perspective of reliability theory), at both operational and strategic scales. B System Reliability Framework Development.
The objective in this activity is to apply system reliability techniques to calculate the probabilities of shoreline failure (defined as occurrence of an erosion event that exceeds a prescribed level) along a coastline within a strategic life cycle, usually 50-100 years. C Field Monitoring, Data Assimilation and Analysis.
This activity involves the collection of the essential data and establishing the ground truth for both activities A & B. The analysis will also focus on techniques for identifying the definitive processes that control morphodynamic behaviour at different spatial and temporal scales.

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