|Impact of climate change on high and low discharge on Flemish rivers|
Vanneuville, W.; Van Eerdenbrugh, K.; Viaene, P.; Willems, P. (2007). Impact of climate change on high and low discharge on Flemish rivers, in: Heinonen, M. (Ed.) Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Climate and Water, Helsinki, Finland, 3-6 September 2007. pp. 494-499
In: Heinonen, M. (Ed.) (2007). Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Climate and Water, Helsinki, Finland, 3-6 September 2007. Finnish Environment Institute: Helsinki. ISBN 978-952-11-2790-8. 613 + cd-rom pp., more
Climatic changes; Extremes; Hydrography; Hydrology; Belgium, Dender Basin [Marine Regions]; Fresh water
|Authors|| || Top |
- Vanneuville, W., more
- Van Eerdenbrugh, K., more
- Viaene, P.
- Willems, P., more
In climate change studies, the influence on hydrological extremes is much more uncertain thantemperature evolution, having serious consequences for risk management in river catchments.Flanders Hydraulics Research (Department of the Flemish Administration, Ministry of Mobilityand Public Works) set up a study program, executed by the Hydraulics Department of Leuven Universitytogether with the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium and consultant IMDC. Theyselected a set of climate change scenarios for Flanders.
The Dender River is chosen as a pilot case to research the influence of changing rainfall and evaporationpatterns on river discharges. A serious decrease of summer rainfall together with an increaseof evaporation result in more extreme low flow discharges. The summer base flow can decreasewith more than 50% during dry summers. This increases the chance on water deficits, with adverseconsequences for drinking-water production, shipping, agriculture, industry, nature …Although frequently associated with climate change, the increase of flood probabilities is not thatclear in the results. Peak discharges in a river like the Dender do not rise more than 15% in themost extreme scenarios while their mean trend is even diminishing a few percents.The uncertainties remain high for secondary effects of climate change like flooding. Therefore climateevolutions have to be monitored and analysed very intensively during the next decades. Newwater policy projects must incorporate possibilities for adaptive measurements. Especially the problemsof water availability during summer need further analysis and follow-up.