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Analysis of dike breach sensitivity using a conceptual method followed by a comprehensive statistical approach to end up with failure probabilities
Peeters, P.; Van Looveren, R.; Vincke, L.; Vanneuville, W.; Blanckaert, J. (2008). Analysis of dike breach sensitivity using a conceptual method followed by a comprehensive statistical approach to end up with failure probabilities, in: Simonovic, S.P. et al. (Ed.) Proceedings of the 4th international symposium on flood defence: managing flood risk, reliability and vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 6-8, 2008. pp. 151(1)-151(8)
In: Simonovic, S.P.; Bourget, P.G.; Blanchard, F. (Ed.) (2008). Proceedings of the 4th international symposium on flood defence: managing flood risk, reliability and vulnerability, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, May 6-8, 2008. Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction: Cranbrook. , more

Available in Authors 
Document type: Conference paper

Keywords
    Embankments; Failures; Probability theory

Authors  Top 
  • Peeters, P., more
  • Van Looveren, R., more
  • Vincke, L.
  • Vanneuville, W., more
  • Blanckaert, J., more

Abstract
    Breach formation can be initiated by various geotechnical failure mechanisms. Evaluation ofthese mechanisms usually requires an enormous amount of data which is currently not available inFlanders. Therefore, a conceptual method for the estimation of breach sensitivity along waterways hasbeen developed by Flanders Hydraulics Research. The method can be executed based on a limitedamount of data which is currently available and avoids the need to perform expensive and timeconsuming large scale field surveys. For each failure mechanism, readily available strength-parametersare weighted and the outcome is the ‘failure index’ for the considered failure mechanism. These indexesallow to estimate where breaching is likely to occur. In addition, at identified critical sectors and/or wherehigh damage costs can be expected, a detailed statistical approach accounting for the uncertainty ofestimated parameters is suggested and hence, ends up with failure probabilities at these locations.

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