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Predicting morphological changes in rivers, estuaries and coasts
Reeve, D.E.; Li, Y.; Larson, M.; Hanson, H.; Donnelly, C.; Jiménez, J.A.; Mendoza, E.T.; Zech, Y.; Soares Frazão, S.; Bettess, R.; Stripling, S.; Brampton, A. (2007). Predicting morphological changes in rivers, estuaries and coasts. Floodsite Consortium: [s.l.]. xi, 207 pp.

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Keywords
    Coastal morphology; Estuaries; Fluvial morphology; Geomorphology; Models; Marine; Brackish water

Authors  Top 
  • Reeve, D.E.
  • Li, Y.
  • Larson, M.
  • Hanson, H.
  • Donnelly, C.
  • Jiménez, J.A.
  • Mendoza, E.T.
  • Zech, Y.
  • Soares Frazão, S.
  • Bettess, R.
  • Stripling, S.
  • Brampton, A.

Abstract
    This report is the deliverable from the FLOODsite partners contributing to Task 5 . Predicting Morphological Changes in Rivers, Estuaries and Coasts. In Task 5, research has been undertaken to improve understanding, models and techniques for the analysis of the performance of the whole flood defence system and its diverse components, including natural and man-made defences (e.g. seawalls, embankments, dunes). In particular, two specific aims were to (a) to develop an improved understanding of morphological change of beaches over large time and spatial scales and provide a better predictive tool for the response of dunes to storm loading, and (b), to critically review current knowledge and on-going programmes or river and estuarial morphology, summary existing knowledge and identify a forward programme of detailed and justified research.

    This document provides a new source of information upon which risk management tools and analyses may be based. It links with a number of other tasks within FLOODsite. Specifically, Task 2 - Estimation of extremes, Task 4 - Understanding and predicting failure modes, Task 7 - Reliability analysis of flood defence structures and systems, and Task 26 . Pilot Study of the Ebro Delta.

    The research on coastal morphology has led to a number of new developments. These include a stochastic model of beach plan shape variability, a regional model for regional scale changes, a rapid coastal evolution model, beach overwash and dune erosion models. These have all been used on actual sites, in order to illustrate their application. The stochastic model has been applied to Christchurch Bay on the south coast of the UK. The regional model methodology for assessing the coastal vulnerability to storm impacts has been applied to the Catalan coast. Storms on the Catalan coast have been classified in terms of their inundation and erosion potential. The methodology has been applied to the longest existing wave record in the Catalan coast for two different coastal types. The rapid coastal evolution model is a fully integrated, dynamically linked coastal management tool, GTI-SEAMaT, which is illustrated through an application to the shoreline of Calabria in Italy. For beach overwash and dune modelling the analytical model proposed by Larson et al. (2004) to simulate dune erosion and dune foot retreat during severe storms was further developed and tested. Four different data sets on dune erosion, originating from the laboratory and the field, were employed to validate the model. An analytical model was formulated to describe the response of a dune to wave impact and overwash. The approach has been applied to sites in the USA and the Ebro delta.

    With an increased knowledge of the impact that fluvial and estuarine morphology can have on flood risk, it is possible to implement more appropriate management strategies to deal with morphological change that has an impact on flooding and, therefore, potentially mitigate the likelihood and the consequences of flooding. This rationale has motivated the investigation of existing approaches to fluvial and estuarine morphological modelling and which has led to the development of a method for incorporating the impact of morphological change in an evaluation of flood risk.

    This Task has produced a diverse set of outputs, including journal papers, conference papers, presentations and media interviews. A list of the major outputs is provided in Section 4.3. Gaps in our current knowledge of coastal, fluvial and estuarine morphology have been identified and priorities for future research identified in the each chapter. These are summarised in Section 4.1.

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