|Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense atlantic hurricanes|
|Bender, M.A.; Knutson, T.R.; Tuleya, R.E.; Sirutis, J.; Vecchi, G.A.; Garner, S.T.; Held, I.M. (2010). Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense atlantic hurricanes. Science (Wash.) 327(5964): 454-458|
|In: Science (Washington). American Association for the Advancement of Science: Washington DC. ISSN 0036-8075, more|
|Authors|| || Top |
Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.