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Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century
Pereira, H.M.; Leadley, P.W.; Proença, V.; Alkemade, R.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Fernandez-Manjarrés, J.F.; Araújo, M.B.; Balvanera, P.; Biggs, R.; Cheung, W.W.L.; Chini, L.; Cooper, H.D.; Gilman, E.L.; Guénette, S.; Hurtt, G.C.; Huntington, H.P.; Mace, G.M.; Oberdorff, T.; Revenga, C.; Rodrigues, P.; Scholes, R.J.; Sumaila, U.R.; Walpole, M. (2010). Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century. Science (Wash.) 330(6010): 1496-1501. https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1196624
In: Science (Washington). American Association for the Advancement of Science: New York, N.Y. ISSN 0036-8075; e-ISSN 1095-9203, more
Peer reviewed article  

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Authors  Top 
  • Pereira, H.M.
  • Leadley, P.W.
  • Proença, V.
  • Alkemade, R.
  • Scharlemann, J.P.W.
  • Fernandez-Manjarrés, J.F.
  • Araújo, M.B.
  • Balvanera, P.
  • Biggs, R.
  • Cheung, W.W.L.
  • Chini, L.
  • Cooper, H.D.
  • Gilman, E.L.
  • Guénette, S.
  • Hurtt, G.C.
  • Huntington, H.P.
  • Mace, G.M.
  • Oberdorff, T.
  • Revenga, C.
  • Rodrigues, P.
  • Scholes, R.J.
  • Sumaila, U.R.
  • Walpole, M.

Abstract
    Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

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