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Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies
Chen, Y.; Randerson, J.T.; Morton, D.C.; DeFries, R.S.; Collatz, G.J.; Kasibhatla, P.; Giglio, L.; Jin, Y.; Marlier, M.E. (2011). Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies. Science (Wash.) 334(6057): 787-791. hdl.handle.net/10.1126/science.1209472
In: Science (Washington). American Association for the Advancement of Science: New York, N.Y. ISSN 0036-8075, more
Peer reviewed article  

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Keyword
    Marine

Authors  Top 
  • Chen, Y.
  • Randerson, J.T.
  • Morton, D.C.
  • DeFries, R.S.
  • Collatz, G.J.
  • Kasibhatla, P., editor
  • Giglio, L.
  • Jin, Y.
  • Marlier, M.E.

Abstract
    Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Niño Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.

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