IMIS | Flanders Marine Institute
 

Flanders Marine Institute

Platform for marine research

IMIS

Publications | Institutes | Persons | Datasets | Projects | Maps
[ report an error in this record ]basket (0): add | show Printer-friendly version

Multifractal features of spot rates in the Liquid Petroleum Gas shipping market
Engelen, S.; Norouzzadeh, P.; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, B. (2011). Multifractal features of spot rates in the Liquid Petroleum Gas shipping market. Energy Econ. 33(1): 88-98. hdl.handle.net/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.05.009
In: Energy Economics. IPC Science and Technology Press: Guildford. ISSN 0140-9883, more
Peer reviewed article  

Available in  Authors 
    VLIZ: Open Repository 248264 [ OMA ]

Keyword
    Marine
Author keywords
    MF-DFA; R/S; LPG; Freight rates; Hurst exponent

Authors  Top 
  • Engelen, S.
  • Norouzzadeh, P.
  • Dullaert, W., more
  • Rahmani, B.

Abstract
    We investigate for the first time the spot rate dynamics of Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) by means of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and rescaled range (R/S) analysis. Both non-parametric methods allow for a rigorous statistical analysis of the freight process by detecting correlation, scaling and fluctuation behavior regardless of nonlinearity issues. By applying different data-frequencies and a temporal framework, the Hurst exponents indicate that freight rates exhibit trend-reinforcement and persistence subject to limited time-dependency and controlled volatility. The found long-range dependence corroborates that a predictive freight model can be built undermining the efficient market hypothesis. Memory effects seem to each time build up until they are interrupted by seasonal transitions, stochastic events or cycles which all spark a sudden loss in correlations or increase in nonlinearities. The surrogate and shuffling data procedures demonstrate that, dependent on the data-frequency used, memory effects and fat-tail distributions should be contained differently in freight rate models.

All data in IMIS is subject to the VLIZ privacy policy Top | Authors