|A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise|Rohling, E.J.; Haigh, I.D.; Foster, G.L.; Roberts, A.P.; Grant, K.M. (2013). A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise. NPG Scientific Reports 3(3461): 7 pp. hdl.handle.net/10.1038/srep03461
In: Scientific Reports (Nature Publishing Group). Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 2045-2322, more
Palaeoceanography Palaeoclimate Climate-change impacts Projection and prediction
|Authors|| || Top |
- Rohling, E.J.
- Haigh, I.D.
- Foster, G.L.
- Roberts, A.P.
- Grant, K.M.
During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of ‘normal’ processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.