|Eurasian permafrost instability constrained by reduced sea-ice cover|Vandenberghe, J.; Renssen, H.; Roche, D.M.; Goosse, H.; Velichko, A.A.; Gorbunov, A.; Levavasseur, G. (2012). Eurasian permafrost instability constrained by reduced sea-ice cover. Quat. Sci. Rev. 34: 16-23. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.12.001
In: Quaternary Science Reviews. Pergamon Press: Oxford; New York. ISSN 0277-3791, more
Permafrost distribution; Arctic sea-ice; Permafrost instability; LGMpermafrost extent; Permafrost modelling
|Authors|| || Top |
- Vandenberghe, J.
- Renssen, H.
- Roche, D.M.
- Goosse, H., more
- Velichko, A.A.
- Gorbunov, A.
- Levavasseur, G.
In order to specify potentially causal relationships between climate, permafrost extent and sea-ice cover we apply a twofold research strategy: (1) we cover a large range of climate conditions varying from full glacial to the relatively warm climate projected for the end of the 21st Century, (2) we combine new proxy-based reconstructions of Eurasian permafrost extent during the LGM and climate model simulations. We find that that there is a linear relationship between the winter sea-ice extent in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and the latitude of the southernmost permafrost limit in Eurasia. During the LGM, extensive sea-ice cover caused a zonal permafrost distribution with the southern margin extending W-E and reaching 47°N, contrasting with the present-day NW SE trending margin (66°-52°N). We infer that under global warming scenarios projected by climate models for the 21st Century the Arctic sea-ice cover decline will cause widespread instability of, mainly discontinuous, permafrost in Eurasian lowlands.