IMIS | Flanders Marine Institute
 

Flanders Marine Institute

Platform for marine research

IMIS

Publications | Institutes | Persons | Datasets | Projects | Maps
[ report an error in this record ]basket (0): add | show Printer-friendly version

Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
Slangen, A.B.A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Stammer, D. (2014). Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes. Clim. Change 124(1-2): 317-332. dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9
In: Climatic Change. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht; Boston. ISSN 0165-0009, more
Peer reviewed article  

Available in Authors 

Authors  Top 
  • Slangen, A.B.A.
  • Carson, M.
  • Katsman, C.A.
  • van de Wal, R.S.W.
  • Köhl, A.
  • Vermeersen, L.L.A., more
  • Stammer, D.

Abstract
    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 +/- 0.19 m and 0.71 +/- 0.28 m respectively (mean +/- 1 sigma). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.

All data in IMIS is subject to the VLIZ privacy policy Top | Authors