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Multi-Annual Fluctuations in Reconstructed Historical Time-Series of a European Lobster (Homarus gammarus) Population Disappear at Increased Exploitation Levels
Sundelöf, A.; Bartolino, V.; Ulmestrand, M.; Cardinale, M. (2013). Multi-Annual Fluctuations in Reconstructed Historical Time-Series of a European Lobster (Homarus gammarus) Population Disappear at Increased Exploitation Levels. PLoS One 8(4): 10
In: PLoS One. Public Library of Science: San Francisco. ISSN 1932-6203, more
Peer reviewed article  

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Keywords
    19th century; 20th century; Catch per unit effort; Fisheries; Population; Time series; Homarus gammarus (Linnaeus, 1758) [WoRMS]; ANE, North Sea [Marine Regions]; ANE, Skagerrak [Marine Regions]; Marine

Authors  Top 
  • Sundelöf, A.
  • Bartolino, V.
  • Ulmestrand, M.
  • Cardinale, M.

Abstract
    Through the history of ecology, fluctuations of populations have been a dominating topic, and endogenous causes of fluctuations and oscillations have been recognized and studied for more than 80 years. Here we analyzed an historical dataset, covering more than 130 years, of European lobster (Homarus gammarus) catches. The data shows periodic fluctuations, which are first dampened and then disappear over time. The disappearance of the periodicity coincided with a substantial increase in fishing effort and the oscillations have not reappeared in the time series. The shifting baseline syndrome has changed our perception of not only the status of the stock, but also the regulating pressures. We describe the transition of a naturally regulated lobster population into a heavily exploited fisheries controlled stock. This is shown by the incorporation of environmental and endogenous processes in generalized additive models, autocorrelation functions and periodicity analyses of time-series.

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