|Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures|Steinman, B.A.; Mann, M.E.; Miller, S.K. (2015). Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures . Science (Wash.) 347(6225): 988-991. hdl.handle.net/10.1126/science.1257856
In: Science (Washington). American Association for the Advancement of Science: New York, N.Y. ISSN 0036-8075, more
|Authors|| || Top |
- Steinman, B.A.
- Mann, M.E.
- Miller, S.K.
The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability for forcing external to Earth’s climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed “AMO” and “PMO,” respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or “false pause” in warming of the past decade.