IMIS | Flanders Marine Institute

Flanders Marine Institute

Platform for marine research


Publications | Institutes | Persons | Datasets | Projects | Maps
[ report an error in this record ]basket (0): add | show Print this page

Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)
Tolessa Leta, O.; Nossent, J.; Velez, C.; Kumar Shrestha, N.; Van Griensven, A.; Bauwens, W. (2015). Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Environ. Model. Softw. 68: 129-146.
In: Environmental Modelling & Software. Elsevier: Oxford. ISSN 1364-8152; e-ISSN 1873-6726, more
Peer reviewed article  

Available in  Authors 

    Motion > Water motion > Water currents > Stream flow
    Belgium, Zenne R. [Marine Regions]
Author keywords
    Uncertainty assessment; Rainfall uncertainty; SWAT; DREAM

Authors  Top 
  • Kumar Shrestha, N., more
  • Van Griensven, A., more
  • Bauwens, W., more

    Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.

All data in the Integrated Marine Information System (IMIS) is subject to the VLIZ privacy policy Top | Authors