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Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems
Guiot, J.; Cramer, W. (2016). Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems. Science (Wash.) 354(6311): 465-468. http://hdl.handle.net/10.1126/science.aah5015
In: Science (Washington). American Association for the Advancement of Science: New York, N.Y. ISSN 0036-8075; e-ISSN 1095-9203, more
Peer reviewed article  

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  • Guiot, J.
  • Cramer, W.

Abstract
    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2 degrees C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5 degrees C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2 degrees C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies.

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