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Are natural climate forcings able to counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming?
Bertrand, C.; van Ypersele, J.P.; Berger, A. (2002). Are natural climate forcings able to counteract the projected anthropogenic global warming? Clim. Change 55(4): 413-427
In: Climatic Change. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht; Boston. ISSN 0165-0009, more
Peer reviewed article  

Available in  Authors 
    VLIZ: Open Repository 280431 [ OMA ]

Keyword
    Marine

Authors  Top 
  • Bertrand, C.
  • van Ypersele, J.P., more
  • Berger, A., more

Abstract
    A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assess the climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.

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