|Risicoanalyse van dijken langs de Grensmaas|
Plevoets, B.; Vanbrabant, S.; Van Dyck, J.; Willems, P. (1998). Risicoanalyse van dijken langs de Grensmaas. Water 17(99): 50-60
In: Water: Tijdschrift over Waterproblematiek. VLARIO vzw/vzw Water: Wijnegem. ISSN 0770-7193, more
Dikes; Risk analysis; Belgium, Grensmaas; Fresh water
|Authors|| || Top |
- Plevoets, B.
- Vanbrabant, S., editor
- Van Dyck, J., more
- Willems, P., more
The safety of dikes along the river Meuse is determined on the one hand by the probability of overtopping of the dike and on the other hand by the probability of a dike-burst. In the first part of this publication, the probability of overtopping is estimated. First, the frequency with which extreme river flows occur is estimated applying alternative estimation techniques to the observations of daily maximum river discharges along the Meuse since 1911. Next, the frequency distribution of high-water levels at a specific location is derived combining this distribution with an estimate of the correlation between high-water levels and river discharges, as determined on the basis of simultaneous observations of both variables made since 1974. In the second part of the publication, the probability of a dike-burst is studied. This probability depends on the physical characteristics of the dike and the waterlevel in the river and is determined using recently developed reliability methods. The final safety of the dikes is assessed by combining this probability with the earlier obtained results for the flood frequencies.