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Climate variability and predictability research in Europe, 1999-2004: Euroclivar recommendations
Komen, G. (Ed.) (1998). Climate variability and predictability research in Europe, 1999-2004: Euroclivar recommendations. Euroclivar: De Bilt. ISBN 90-369-2146-5. XXIV, 119 pp.

Available in  Author 
    VLIZ: Meteorology and Climatology MET.39 [8204]

Keywords
    Marine; Brackish water; Fresh water

Author  Top 
  • Komen, G., editor

Abstract
    This document contains recommendations for European research on global climate variability and predictability, as a European contribution to the global CLIVAR programme. A better understanding of climate is of great importance for Europe for a number of reasons: 1. Natural fluctuations of the climate of Europe have many very significant consequences for safety, health, infrastructure, agriculture, energy, economy. 2. Natural climate fluctuations elsewhere in the world have European implications through geophysical, socio-economic and political mechanisms. 3. Improved prediction and detection of anthropogenic climate change will provide a firmer scientific basis for active emission, mitigation and adaptation policies. The mechanisms activated under the international post-Kyoto negotiations (joint implementation and emission trading) will, inter alia, demand knowledge of global climate patterns. Natural climate fluctuations and human-induced climate change are intricately related and need to be studied together. Euroclivar recommends that high priority be given to the following topics: 1. European and Atlantic variability; 2. Global teleconnections; and 3. Anthropogenic climate change. The climate in the North Atlantic/European domain exhibits significant variability on interannual and decadal time scales, involving interactions between the atmosphere and ocean circulation. At the same time this region is affected by major teleconnections linked to phenomena in the tropical atmosphere/ocean/land system, such as El Niño, African climate variability and the Asian monsoon. There are discrepancies between predictions of climate change made by different models which need to be understood and reduced. The scientific basis for detection and attribution of climate change must be improved. The predictability of the climate system on time scales from seasonal to centennial needs to be quantified and models suitable for climate prediction must be developed. To achieve the Euroclivar objectives, the establishment of an integrated observational network is imperative. This network, to be implemented in cooperation with nations adjacent to the Atlantic, should include: 1. an extensive network of profiling floats in the Atlantic; 2. an operational tropical Atlantic array of moored atmosphere/ocean observing stations (PIRATA); 3. basin-wide measurements of the Atlantic water mass and circulation variability at critical latitudes; 4. continuation, at the present level, of the ocean/atmosphere observations with Voluntary Observing Ships; and 5. continuous contribution of satellites to the global coverage of the ocean and atmosphere. In addition, past climate variability needs to be reconstructed, using both the instrumental and the palaeoclimatic records. A European Climate Computing Facility Reliable regional climate change predictions cannot be achieved without enhanced European collaboration and substantial increases in computing resources. These are needed so that multi-century simulations can be made with sufficient complexity that important climatic features, physical processes and regional details are resolved. In addition, ensembles of integrations must be made to estimate the impact on climate predictions of uncertainties in initial conditions and model formulation. The computational requirements for such simulations cannot be met from purely national resources. It is therefore strongly recommended that a European Climate Computing Facility be established.

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