Probabilistic simulations for seasonal typhoon genesis over the South China Sea
In: Earth Systems and Environment. Springer International Publishing: Cham. ISSN 2509-9426; e-ISSN 2509-9434, more
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| Abstract |
The South China Sea (SCS) is one of the tropical oceans regularly affected by destructive storms. It is urgent to establish models to simulate storm formations in this area. This paper aims to simulate typhoon genesis, regarding to seasonal variation in the SCS for 1000 years using Monte Carlo simulation. We employed the seventeenth probability distributions to fit historical typhoon data which were extracted from the Best Track Data of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 1951 to 2020. The three evaluation criteria, including mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE) and (1-CC) where CC is the correlation coefficient, were applied to choose the best-fitting probability distribution for simulations of typhoon geneses. The statistical features of historical typhoons were analyzed, comprising the number of typhoons, typhoon genesis locations (latitudes and longitudes) and the seasonal effects on the formation of typhoons. The results showed that the peak typhoon season (PS) lasted from June to September and the remaining months were classified as the low typhoon seasons (LS). Typhoon genesis locations mainly distributed in latitudinal range between 10 and 25° N for PS, whereas they spread in a larger area, mostly southward of 15° N for LS. MAD is the most appropriate indicator for good-of-fit test. Tlocationscale and generalized extreme value (Gev) distributions fit well the observed typhoon genesis longitudes for LS and PS, respectively. The historical typhoon genesis latitudes for LS and PS follow Weilbull and Gev distributions, respectively. The spatial distributions of the simulated typhoon geneses for the two seasons were in good agreement with those of the historical ones. |
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