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Global multi-model projections of local urban climates
Zhao, L.; Oleson, K.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Krayenhoff, E.S.; Bray, A.; Zhu, Q.; Zheng, Z.; Chen, C.; Oppenheimer, M. (2021). Global multi-model projections of local urban climates. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11(2): 152-157. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00958-8
In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798, more
Peer reviewed article  

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Authors  Top 
  • Zhao, L.
  • Oleson, K.
  • Bou-Zeid, E.
  • Krayenhoff, E.S.
  • Bray, A.
  • Zhu, Q.
  • Zheng, Z.
  • Chen, C.
  • Oppenheimer, M.

Abstract
    Effective urban planning for climate-driven risks relies on robust climate projections specific to built landscapes. Such projections are absent because of a near-universal lack of urban representation in global-scale Earth system models. Here, we combine climate modelling and data-driven approaches to provide global multi-model projections of urban climates over the twenty-first century. The results demonstrate the inter-model robustness of specific levels of urban warming over certain regions under climate change. Under a high-emissions scenario, cities in the United States, Middle East, northern Central Asia, northeastern China and inland South America and Africa are estimated to experience substantial warming of more than 4 K—larger than regional warming—by the end of the century, with high inter-model confidence. Our findings highlight the critical need for multi-model global projections of local urban climates for climate-sensitive development and support green infrastructure intervention as an effective means of reducing urban heat stress on large scales.

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