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Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates
Baart, F.; Bakker, M.A.J.; van Dongeren, A.; Den Heijer, C.; van Heteren, S.; Smit, M.W.J.; van Koningsveld, M.; Pool, A. (2011). Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11(10): 2791-2801. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2791-2011
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Copernicus Publications: Göttingen. ISSN 1561-8633, more
Peer reviewed article  

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Keyword
    Marine

Authors  Top 
  • Baart, F.
  • Bakker, M.A.J.
  • van Dongeren, A., more
  • Den Heijer, C.
  • van Heteren, S.
  • Smit, M.W.J.
  • van Koningsveld, M.
  • Pool, A.

Abstract
    For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.

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