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A recent decline in North Atlantic subtropical mode water formation
Stevens, S.W.; Johnson, R.J.; Maze, G.; Bates, N.R. (2020). A recent decline in North Atlantic subtropical mode water formation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10(4): 335-341. https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0722-3
In: Nature Climate Change. Nature Publishing Group: London. ISSN 1758-678X; e-ISSN 1758-6798, meer
Peer reviewed article  

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  • Stevens, S.W.
  • Johnson, R.J.
  • Maze, G.
  • Bates, N.R.

Abstract
    As a manifestation of mixing dynamics in the upper ocean, interannual and decadal variability of subtropical mode water (STMW) properties in the North Atlantic Ocean provides a valuable insight into ocean–atmosphere interaction in a changing climate. Here, we use hydrographic data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study and Hydrostation S sites near Bermuda, as well as various ocean reanalysis products, to evaluate the modern variability of STMW properties. Our study finds an 86–93% loss of STMW thickness at these sites between 2010 and 2018 and a comparable loss throughout the western subtropical gyre, culminating in the weakest STMW pentad on record. We correlate this decline with a reduction in the annual outcropping volume and northward excursions of the formation region, suggesting a gyre-wide signal of weakening STMW generation. The outcropping volume of STMW is anti-correlated with surface ocean heat content, foreshadowing future STMW loss in the face of continued warming.

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